FiatToken (Native USDC): On-chain state mapping: Existence
Investment View
Preempting global regulatory standards: The GENIUS Act in the United States and MiCA in Europe are both a crisis and an opportunity for Circle. Infrastructure dependency risk: CCTP and xReserve depend on Circle's off-chain signature service (Iris). Negative growth when interest rates fall: If the Fed's interest rate reduction cycle arrives, ecosystem support grants or partnership incentives may be reduced due to worsening profitability, which may lead to a weakening of the overall network effect.
Previous Versions
Since USDC is not a price-increasing token but a stablecoin that aims for $1 repayment and payment stability, the 12-month scenario is evaluated based on peg stability, circulation volume, payment adoption, and regulatory risk rather than “price rise.” USDC is a dollar-linked stablecoin issued by Circle, and as of April 30, 2026, as of Circle's official page, USDC circulating volume is announced as USD 77.1 billion and reserves as USD 77.4 billion. Circle explains that its reserves are 100% backed by cash and highly liquid cash equivalents, and publishes monthly reserve verification reports from Big Four accounting firms.
Investment View
The reason is that Circle is expanding its target horizon beyond the simple USDC issuance growth narrative to CPN, CCTP V2, xReserve, Arc, and Compliance Engine. Reserves depend on off-chain financial institutions and the government bond market, Circle's profits are sensitive to interest rates, and issuance, redemption, and freezing authority is centralized. If this transition is successful, USDC is likely to go beyond the “dollar token of the cryptocurrency market” and become a “regulated payment layer in Internet finance”.
Previous Versions